Research shows we are winning the battle to reduce gun violence, or at least we were
When I give a keynote address to a group of business people or school officials, I get some sideways looks when I say I'm confident we are making progress to reduce gun violence in the United States. I feel the audience’s hesitancy to believe.
We are all struggling to combat firearms violence but there is little consensus on what is the magic mix of law and policy. A positive sign for me is that the FBI’s calculations on annual active shooters took a downward trend for the first time in 23 years, last year. Similarly, I’ve seen a downturn in casualties per incident.
Speaking at Busboy & Poets in Arlington, VA. | Nov. 2023
Now, recently released research validates that collective changes in law and policy can result in an aggregate reduction in gun violence. But only if the changes remain in place.
Looking for the impact, Princeton University evaluated the strictness of gun laws in 40 states passed from 1991 to 2016. Researchers Patrick Sharkey and Megan Kang calculated, for example, that nearly 4,300 deaths by firearms were avoided in 2016 due to stricter gun laws; as many as approximately 10% of the gun deaths nationwide.
Researchers looked at laws that tightened things like background checks and waiting periods. Some states mandated safety training and set age restrictions on gun purchases. Others changed the background on private gun sales and prohibited purchases for individuals adjudicated with a mental illness. They found states that made incremental changes to gun regulations had lower death rates per 100,000 residents.
“The challenge of gun violence is not intractable, and in fact, we have just lived through a period of enormous progress that was driven by public policy,” he told writer German Lopez.
“After all,” German wrote, “America’s gun problem is rooted in easy access to firearms. In every country, people get into arguments, hold racist views, or suffer from mental health issues. But when these problems turn violent, quick access to guns makes that violence much more likely to become lethal.”
Sharkey told the New York Times that he was surprised at the research results. German added that national conversations often stall at retractable positions on federal laws to ban all assault-style weapons or enact universal background checks.
Since 2016, the end of data relied on by Princeton, aggressive efforts have been made to dismantle firearms laws and policies at both the state and federal levels. The result, Sharkey said, has been a surge in gun sales–as many as another 100 million guns in circulation–and increased gun deaths.
The Princeton research isn’t the only research establishing this promising correlation, it’s just the latest. Ongoing and aggressive research efforts are beginning to shed light on promising solutions as well as dispel misconceptions.
Let’s keep the research going. Let’s not give up on law and policy until we know it is part of the secret sauce that will allow us to protect gun rights and still keep guns out of the hands of troubled people.
Gun control is one of the most divisive issues in the Unite States. Where do you stand?